USD/CHF hangs near daily low amid weaker USD, manages to hold above mid-0.8400s

• USD/CHF struggles to preserve its intraday gains to a one-week high amid renewed USD selling.
• Rising US bond yields limit the USD losses and lend support to the pair amid the risk-on mood.
• SECO forecasts Swiss economic growth in 2024 and 2025 to be considerably below average.

The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers following an intraday uptick to the 0.8515 area, or a one-week high and drops to a fresh daily low during the first half of the European session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.8455-0.8460 region, nearly unchanged for the day, and remain confined in a familiar range held since the beginning of this month.

The US Dollar (USD) comes under some renewed selling pressure and stalls the post-FOMC recovery from its lowest level since July 2023, which, in turn, exerts some downward pressure on the USD/CHF pair. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve‘s (Fed) not-so-dovish outlook on Wednesday raised questions about the magnitude of interest rate cuts going forward and lent some support to the Greenback. In fact, the updated economic projections revealed that policymakers don’t see inflation returning to the 2% target before 2026.

Adding to this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the post-meeting press conference that the central bank had no intention of returning to an ultra-low-rate regime and dashed hopes for a more aggressive policy easing. This is seen as a key factor that continues to push the US Treasury bond yields higher and should act as a tailwind for the buck. Apart from this, a generally positive risk tone could undermine the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF) and contribute to limiting the downside for the USD/CHF pair.

Furthermore, Switzerlands State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), in its June economic forecasts, said that the government continues to expect economic growth in 2024 and 2025 to be considerably below average. This, in turn, warrants some caution for bearish traders and before positioning for any further depreciating move for the USD/CHF pair. Investors now look forward to the US macro data – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Existing Home Sales data – for short-term trading opportunities.