BTC difficulty to adjust over weekend as miners capitulate

The mining difficulty of Bitcoin is expected to change Sunday night/Monday morning (Nov. 20/21.) Over 100% of the mined Bitcoin supply is currently being spent at the fifth highest rate ever.

Following back-to-back negative or neutral difficulty adjustments, Bitcoin hash rate and difficulty may have peaked. However, the difficulty is expected to drop again over the weekend, adding to the belief that the hashrate has peaked.

The graph below depicts the percentage of Bitcoins spent by miners over a 30-day period. The blue section depicts the number of coins sold by miners, which has peaked at its highest level since 2021. The amount of Bitcoins sold by miners in the last 30 days is the fifth-highest in Bitcoin history.

Miners' balances are also declining, though not at an alarming rate at the moment. The disparity between spent Bitcoins and Miner balances indicates that mining companies may be selling newly mined coins to cover costs.

A sharp increase in global energy costs, combined with a drop in Bitcoin's price, is creating a perfect storm for Bitcoin miners.

In a recent earnings call, the leading Bitcoin mining company. Marathon Digital predicted that Bitcoin would trade between $18,000 and $21,000 for some time. It also stated that it was “at ease” with this range and was prepared to “weather the storm.”

However, as the repercussions of the FTX collapse continue to reverberate throughout the industry, Bitcoin is trading below $17,000 for the eighth day in a row.

If Bitcoin's price remains below $18,00, it may continue to cause problems for miners, leading to more selling. Miners selling to cover operating costs may then set off a downward spiral.